With three weeks left to count up November-December holiday totals, and after passing the online sales gate marked by Cyber-Monday, previous holiday spending expectations from comScore, Forrester Research and eCommerce Times are being lowered a bit. And that’s in spite of the surge in sales, incentives and discount specials across the marketplace.

Holiday Spending Pulse Check To Date:

·        Ditto 2007? Online retail sales trackers are revising their predictions for November-December 2008, now seeing “same level of overall holiday sales as 2007.” Flat-line predictors include comScore’s holiday season estimate of $29.2 Billion (same as last year), and Forrester Research’s downward revision of web sales growth of 12% (October 2008) to 7 or 8% (Cyber Monday December 1, 2008).

·        Cyber-Monday – online equivalent of offline retailing’s Black Friday – is the first Monday after Thanksgiving. Considered the biggest online shopping day of the year, early results from online totals Monday December 1 hint it may not increase overall holiday sales compared to 2007.

·        Special Promotions are Way Up. According to an eHoliday survey from Shopzilla.org conducted in Fall 2008, almost 84% of retailers planned special Cyber-Monday promotions (vs. just over 72% last year); almost 25% of those surveyed planned one-days sales and free shipping.

·        The biggest eCommerce players – including Amazon, eBay, Best Buy, department store Nordstrom and sports goods store Eddie Bauer – offered deals, discounts and incentives … some from the week before Thanksgiving.

·        In spite of flat or same-as-last-year holiday sales, major online retailers noted strong Electronics sales – from GPS devices and large high-def TVs, to iPod music- and Blu Ray disc-players and Kindle (Amazon’s wireless “book” reader).

·        Use of credit cards is down substantially during holiday season 2008 compared to last year. This decline is predictable fallout from increasing unemployment rates and higher credit card interest charges. One beneficiary of lower credit card usage this season is the alternative online payment method PayPal (owned by eBay).

For more data and predictions on holiday season online sales, see Despite Hot Deals, Cyber Monday Sales Tepid by Jeff Meisner in eCommerce Times.