So, take a deep breath. What won’t squeeze into short headlines are micro-trends: sales that swam against the down tide … product categories and sales channels that defied the pull of “dismal” economic gravity. To find these other results that don’t fit the headline, you have to drill down into Holiday Sales reports. Or listen to buyers and sellers who never got asked. Here are some Holiday 2008 results that never made it into shopping analyst headlines and charts.

1. Big Box Retail Is Not The Whole Universe

On January 8, 2009, The New York Times recapped Retail Sales in December under the headline: After Weak Holiday Sales, Retailers Prepare for Even Worse. The subheader was more ominous: Judgment Day Is At Hand for American Retailers.

This was Real World economic analysis by Stephanie Rosenbloom, backed by historical data (from industry watchers like the National Retail Federation). A quick-scan bar chart deepened the gloom, with so many bars dropping below baseline when comparing December 2007 to December 2008. (Goldman Sachs Retail Composite Index). Here it is:

Retail Sales Dec 2008 -- Goldman Sachs

· Think Outside the (Big) Box. A merchandise retailer from New Jersey commented that year-end sales at his value-priced independent store were brisk. This he attributed to not being a “giant national retail chain” or Big Box retail outlet. (See Sales table, above, under column head “Companies.”)

This outside-the-big-box perspective was seconded by other business-owning buyers and sellers – as well as retail shoppers reporting on activity at local malls and shopping centers – who posted “Smaller Is Better” comments at this same sales article.

· Indie Sourcing Below Wholesale. Off-price, returns and liquidation product sourcing all have far greater impact on meeting margins if you’re a smaller retailer or independent seller … and not a big box chain store. Off-price buyer/consultant David Sacks has pegged this in the 40-to-50% zone – the margin after markdown that a smaller store needs to realize — plus advising that 20% of store inventory sourced in discount, off-price products has a greater bottom line impact on smaller retailers than on the volume-based chain store brands you see listed above.

Opportunities to source merchandise at 50% or more below wholesale are: Off-Price Specialists Show ; and online through key word / product category searches at Top Ten Wholesale or product directories searchable at Wholezilla .

2. Sales Slowdown Slowed Itself Down

This could be a Glass Half Empty vs. Glass Half Full scenario. But there are retail sales analysts who saw the totally expected slide in 2008 holiday sales (half empty) slow itself down and hold steady (half full) in the final shopping days of December. One was SpendingPulse, where Michael McNamara, VP for Research and Analysis, said:

“… lower prices of gasoline, extreme discounts, drier weather, pent-up consumer demand for discretionary items, and a calendar shift helped the declines in sales stabilize …” at the end of December 2008.

The gloomy projections that retailers should “prepare for even worse” to come, or headlines that merchandise sellers now approach “Judgment Day,” need some industry perspective. According to the National Retail Federation: Yes, a December sales decline hits hard because November/December sales generally account for 25-to-40% of many retailers’ total annual sales. However, everyone expects “even worse” to come in any calendar year … because January is typically a slow month for retailers. (Don’t sell the pallet of glasses half-empty yet!)

3. Some Apparel Sellers and Discount Merchandisers Held With Price Points or Styles

Everyone knows about name, chain store retailers who filed for bankruptcy (Circuit City, KB Toys, Mervyns, Steve & Barry’s), who announced store closings (Macy’s, Pacific Sunwear) and/or who reported significant sales declines at end 2008 compared to the same shopping season at end 2007 (J.C. Penney, Nordstrom, Saks, Gap, J. Crew, Nieman Marcus, Sears, Limited, American Eagle, etc.).

What is not getting headlines are specialty or niche retailers — especially in hard-hit areas like Women’s Apparel in general, or Teen-targeted mall stores in particular — who are holding steady or moving against the down tide. These niche market performers feature price points or styles that set them apart. For example:

· High-end specialty retail stores, such as Neiman Marcus/Bergdorf Goodman or Saks, saw December sales drop by over 31% and almost 20%, respectively. While discount chain Target reported only 4.1% decline. Dillard’s Department Stores also held December sales decline to under 5%. And competitive pricing at Kohl’s Department Stores saw December 2008 sales results in the plus column (increased by 3.6%). (See Sales table above.)

· Some niche sellers catering to the teen apparel market had hot sales in December: Aeropostale and Buckle saw double-digit increases, up to 13.5%. Specialty teen-targeted clothing store Hot Topic saw holiday sales increase over 4% by selling merchandise tie-ins to the hot vampire teen flick, Twilight.

· Not all discount merchandisers are equal, either. Costco Wholesale sales softened by 4% at end 2008, while rival Wal-Mart increased sales by almost 6%, even as Wal-Mart’s own rival, BJ’s Wholesale Club, increased December sales almost 6%, too. (Food & Beverage product categories hold steady, so far, throughout sales and distribution channels.)

To scan search listings of targeted wholesalers, discount resellers and distributors from Top Ten Wholesale’s network of sites, click Women’s Apparel and Teen/Tween Clothing here.

4. Separating Sinkers and Swimmers

· Online Retail Sales Stayed Afloat. According to retail sales data generated mostly by a MasterCard payments network, total retail sales from November 1 through December 24 were down 5.5% to 8% compared the same period in 2007. However, such global averages hide much bigger and smaller sales declines. One of the smallest sales decreases was for Online Retail … where online shoppers reduced their purchases by only 2.3% from 2007. The MasterCard information subsidiary attributed online retail’s better showing to bad weather two weeks before Christmas (suppressing brick-and-mortar store shopping trips).

· Luxury and Electronics Goods Stalled. That up-to-8% decline in retail sales is an average, dragged down by bigger declines in categories like luxury goods (down more than 34%) and electronics (estimated down more than 26%). In fact, reports on personal electronics sales are as mixed as the extremes in a general average.

Some retail sales watchers point to brisk sales for deep discount electronics, while other trend watchers report high post-holiday inventories at electronics retailers. Better product category analysis may isolate the big percent decline in electronics sales with certain high-ticket products (high-end flat-screen TVs) and not lower mark-up new products in personal data/communications (iPhones, wireless data assistants, voice/texting/web-accessible cell phones), or entertainment (iPods, Nanos, Shuffle, MPEG players).

· Apparel Sales Averages Also Mixed. While MasterCard retail tracking claimed apparel sales were down 19-to-21%, drilling down by apparel category showed wide swings. This same retail report cited a 23% decline in women’s apparel, which may be true of more upscale specialty retail outlets. (See above, 3. Some Apparel Sellers … Held With Price Points.) By comparison, Men’s Apparel declined “only” 14.5% and Footwear sales fell by a “… more manageable 13.5%.”

· More Cash and Alternative Payment Sales. Several sales trackers and some anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers who were more cautious about their holiday buying this past November/December were also more likely to put away their credit cards. Some retailers reported a general trend of more Cash transactions. And the steadier online retail sales sector saw an uptick in use of PayPal, direct withdrawal debit card payments, and other alternative payment systems. These increased cash sales may have been underrepresented by the MasterCard retail sales data cited above, under Apparel Sales.

· Pent Up Demands Delayed. There are indications that even purchasers this past holiday season who are not in financial or employment distress still pulled in their wallets. They’re either nervous about all the “dismal” and “bleak” headlines we cited at the beginning of this retail wrap-up; or they are waiting for even deeper discounts and promotional pricing.

No crystal ball on this trend yet; but there are some micro-signs:

(a) Spring sales and markdowns have already started. Wal-Mart announced promotional sale pricing to keep customers coming during the January slowdown (health and fitness equipment, food).

(b) Large chain retailers are planning orders for end-of-2009 holiday sale, placing them six-to-nine months in advance. Based on economic/sales data, big buyers will buy less.