With the US Dollar shrinking rapidly, and a seemingly never-ending series of contradictions regarding the instability of the economy hitting all of the news feeds… it’s easy to see that this holiday season will present some interesting challenges to the wholesale and retail specialists that are trying to tie it all together in time for the major shopping wrap-up of 2009. General merchandise has always been a market with its upswings and downturns, but this time the numbers to focus upon are the forecasts for what kind of money will be spent by the consumer this season in specific areas like Christmas and party supplies… and how you can apply some smart spending of your own towards meeting their specialized demands, without resorting to too much guesswork.

It looks like the ones who research the trends and the global news are going to win. Fortunately for the number-crunchers, there are a variety of resources available for those who want to sink their teeth into the dizzying piles of numbers and spreads that break down consumer spending patterns, regional areas of distinction, and pretty much anything else that you can think of… but how do you filter out all the noise, and find the resources that make sense to you? What’s being offered by manufacturers to your market category? Where can you turn to, without spending all of your time going bleary-eyed from the bluish-cold glow of your PC monitor, and without making you feel like your world has been reduced to a 1680 x 1050 display? Okay, maybe that last part was really just describing my own situation… but you get the idea.

Since every one of you in the wholesale and retail biz are as different as the customers you serve, I’ll try to bring up a few of the main traditional focal points, with another nice and neat TopTen list of popular off-price products being outsourced this holiday season:

• Accessories… there’s never been a better time to start carrying a full range of accessories, from classic to outrageous. With prices dipping and once-successful export companies in China feeling the pinch… you might get a lot for a little, if you apply the right tactics in getting a piece of that surplus at a price you’re happy with. Your customers will be even happier when they see how easy you make it for them to find what they want.

• Apparel… I’ve actually noticed some military-grade bags and other small items that are hitting the racks – with the minimal addition of brands and logos – here in China, because there are a few companies that were making actual military gear… who now find themselves without contracts. Guess who’s going to be rocking the desert-camo cargo pants this year? I’ll be one of them. Maybe you can reach out to these manufacturers, and make a deal?

• Shoes… while there will always be a market for high-end footwear, it’s certainly the designer-inspired and budget-conscious suppliers that will be getting more attention this year. Don’t be afraid to check out the huge market for discount shoes.

• Jewelry… I’ve talked about the rise of online jewelry wholesalers in past posts, but another thing to consider is all the talk about gold and silver prices going through the roof. No, I’m not suggesting that buying jewelry will really be the best way to invest in wealth protection, but what I’m referring to instead is the fact that gold broke the USD1000 mark not too long ago… and it continues to climb. That means people had better buy their gold now, rather than waiting for the prices to continue the hike. Are you educating your customers about this? Of course, this means your timely large-volume purchases will protect you from rising costs down the road, too.

• Toys… factory closures in China - and more than a few unscrupulous bosses disappearing with the company’s cash - have been making news here in the PRC, and that means that there are a lot of toys floating around with no place to go. This year’s Christmas will be the year of seeking value, and you can direct your customers to the best ones, if you act fast.

• Electronics… I don’t need to say a lot about this one, do I? China is on a mission to build up its reputation as the world’s next electronics empire… and that means that right now you will find a lot of companies that want to bring their low price-point goods to you, in the hopes that it will boost their budgets for development, and push them to the front end of the surge. Again, this is a nice example of some leverage you may have over them. Beware of really poorly-performing hardware, though… just remember to buy smart, and win.

• Health and Beauty… this is a great example of unknown Asian companies making their move. Did you know that Asian and Indian women have distinctly different needs than Caucasian women, with regard to simple things like concealer, lip liner, shader… and… all that other stuff that I’m suddenly embarrassed to admit I know a lot about? Do you know the demographics of your community – both online and on your street – that will influence your buying decisions? Do you know anything about Kevin, the famous makeup artist from Taiwan? Why don’t you Google him (by the way, this is a different guy from Kevyn Aucoin, the famed American cosmetics entrepreneur) and find out what Asian women are looking for in the USA. Be the first one to offer it to them at a special price! Here’s a tidbit for you: in China, the general consensus is that Japanese and Korean companies are the only ones who make top-quality cosmetics for the Asian market. That means the Chinese products can be had for a low price… for now.

• Handbags… nothing replaces this category, and both men and women will be looking for the all-purpose ‘field kit’ that looks less like a nerdy excuse to keep all of your valuables on your person, and more like a stylish reason to carry extra items that come in handy when you’re out and about.

• Home Décor… lots of folks are going to be moving to smaller homes, rental homes, and even moving in with friends and family as this housing crisis continues its graceful descent into oblivion. Sounds great, right? Well, the fact remains that people like to be comfortable… and that means offering the goods to make a new - and perhaps less posh - living space feel more like home, will be appreciated.

• Food… ah, I saved the best for last. I was in the Food and Beverage business for years, and my prediction is that more families will be giving the gift of cookware this year, in an effort to curb spending by not eating out too often. There’s a lot of choice in the market, since the culinary craze of the past 20 years has built a very solid foundation of foodies far and wide… but this year, the emphasis will be on finding high-nourishment… and half the fat. Bad joke, I know. Pay attention to the smaller, low-cost items of choice in the area of home cooking, and family-sized wares.

Lest I forget, you can always turn to the power-packed pages of Toptenwholesale.com for a solid lead-generator, and a glimpse into what the trends are, in real-time. Other information to peruse would be COMSCORE’s helpful data, like the chart below.

It’s impossible to cover all the bases in one post, but it’s a start. Hopefully you will continue the search for the best outsource options, as you gear up for the most unpredictable holiday shopping season we’ve seen in a long time… just remember to Find it. Source it. Profit!